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Malženice vs Sereď — 3. liga - West 2020

Malženice
Malženice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sereď
Sereď
6/3/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29Futbalový štadión Malženice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Malženice50%
×Draw24%
Sereď26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malženice
1.72
Sereď
1.17

Malženice creates 47% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 46 away

creates per match

Malženice
2.41
Sereď
1.46

allows per match

Malženice
0.87
Sereď
1.02

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par
Sereď+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Sereď →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Malženice or draw
74%
Malženice or Sereď
76%
Draw or Sereď
50%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+
27%
Sereď wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals
82%
Malženice 2+ goals
51%
Malženice 3+ goals
25%
Sereď 1+ goals
69%
Sereď 2+ goals
33%
Sereď 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)
66%
Sereď (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Sereď away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 2.41 + Sereď defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sereď attack 1.46 + Malženice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Malženice scores more
50%
level
24%
Sereď scores more
26%

Malženice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Malženice 1–2 Sereď

Sereď beat Malženice 2-1 in 3. liga - West on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Malženice in Malženice.