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Malženice vs Šamorín — 2. liga 2019

Malženice
Malženice
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Šamorín
Šamorín
5/8/20262. liga2. liga · Round 29Obecny futbalovy stadion Malzenice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Malženice51%
×Draw24%
Šamorín25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malženice
1.68
Šamorín
1.11

Malženice creates 51% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 97 away

creates per match

Malženice
1.49
Šamorín
1.18

allows per match

Malženice
1.05
Šamorín
1.87

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par
Šamorín+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Šamorín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Malženice or draw
75%
Malženice or Šamorín
76%
Draw or Šamorín
49%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+
27%
Šamorín wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals
81%
Malženice 2+ goals
50%
Malženice 3+ goals
24%
Šamorín 1+ goals
67%
Šamorín 2+ goals
30%
Šamorín 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)
67%
Šamorín (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Šamorín away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.87 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 1.49 + Šamorín defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.68

Šamorín attack 1.18 + Malženice defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Malženice scores more
51%
level
24%
Šamorín scores more
25%

Malženice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malženice vs Šamorín

Šamorín beat Malženice 3-2 in 2. liga on May 8, 2026.

The match was played at Obecny futbalovy stadion Malzenice.