Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Malženice vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom — 3. liga - West 2020

Malženice
Malženice
CANC
14:00
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
4/18/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 21Futbalový štadión Malženice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Malženice63%
×Draw20%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malženice
2.08
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
0.97

Malženice creates 114% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 54 away

creates per match

Malženice
2.41
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.07

allows per match

Malženice
0.87
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.76

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par
Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Malženice or draw
83%
Malženice or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
80%
Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
37%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+
39%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals
87%
Malženice 2+ goals
61%
Malženice 3+ goals
34%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
62%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
25%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)
79%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 2.41 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.08

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + Malženice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Malženice scores more
63%
level
20%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
17%

Malženice at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malženice vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom — Match Preview

Malženice face Nové Mesto nad Váhom on April 18, 2021 in this 3. liga - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Malženice host Nové Mesto nad Váhom at Futbalový štadión Malženice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.