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Malženice vs Nitra II — 3. liga - West 2020

Malženice
Malženice
CANC
14:30
Nitra II
Nitra II
5/2/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 23Futbalový štadión Malženice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Malženice71%
×Draw17%
Nitra II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malženice
2.42
Nitra II
0.86

Malženice creates 181% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 7 away

creates per match

Malženice
2.41
Nitra II
0.86

allows per match

Malženice
0.87
Nitra II
2.43

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par
Nitra II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Nitra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Malženice or draw
88%
Malženice or Nitra II
83%
Draw or Nitra II
29%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+
49%
Nitra II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals
91%
Malženice 2+ goals
69%
Malženice 3+ goals
43%
Nitra II 1+ goals
58%
Nitra II 2+ goals
21%
Nitra II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)
86%
Nitra II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Nitra II away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 2.41 + Nitra II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.42

Nitra II attack 0.86 + Malženice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Malženice scores more
71%
level
17%
Nitra II scores more
12%

Malženice at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malženice face Nitra II (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Malženice hosting Nitra II. Match starts May 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Malženice host Nitra II at Futbalový štadión Malženice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.