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Malženice vs Marcelová — 3. liga - West 2020

Malženice
Malženice
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Marcelová
Marcelová
4/10/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 22Futbalový štadión Malženice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Malženice63%
×Draw20%
Marcelová17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malženice
2.23
Marcelová
1.08

Malženice creates 106% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 24 away

creates per match

Malženice
2.41
Marcelová
1.29

allows per match

Malženice
0.87
Marcelová
2.04

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par
Marcelová+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Marcelová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Malženice or draw
83%
Malženice or Marcelová
80%
Draw or Marcelová
37%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+
40%
Marcelová wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals
89%
Malženice 2+ goals
65%
Malženice 3+ goals
38%
Marcelová 1+ goals
66%
Marcelová 2+ goals
29%
Marcelová 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)
78%
Marcelová (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Marcelová away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 2.41 + Marcelová defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.23

Marcelová attack 1.29 + Malženice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Malženice scores more
63%
level
20%
Marcelová scores more
17%

Malženice at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Malženice 5–2 Marcelová

Malženice beat Marcelová 5-2 in 3. liga - West on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Malženice in Malženice.