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Malženice vs Kalná nad Hronom — 3. liga - West 2020

Malženice
Malženice
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
10/15/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 11Futbalový štadión Malženice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Malženice61%
×Draw21%
Kalná nad Hronom18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malženice
2.01
Kalná nad Hronom
0.99

Malženice creates 103% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 31 away

creates per match

Malženice
2.41
Kalná nad Hronom
1.10

allows per match

Malženice
0.87
Kalná nad Hronom
1.61

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par
Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Malženice or draw
82%
Malženice or Kalná nad Hronom
79%
Draw or Kalná nad Hronom
39%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+
37%
Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals
87%
Malženice 2+ goals
59%
Malženice 3+ goals
32%
Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
63%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
26%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)
77%
Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 2.41 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.01

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Malženice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Malženice scores more
61%
level
21%
Kalná nad Hronom scores more
18%

Malženice at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Malženice 3–1 Kalná nad Hronom

Malženice beat Kalná nad Hronom 3-1 in 3. liga - West on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Malženice in Malženice.