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Malženice vs Hamsik Academy — 3. liga - West 2020

Malženice
Malženice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
11/16/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 13TJ Slovan Červeník futbalový štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Malženice55%
×Draw22%
Hamsik Academy23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malženice
1.92
Hamsik Academy
1.16

Malženice creates 66% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 45 away

creates per match

Malženice
2.41
Hamsik Academy
1.44

allows per match

Malženice
0.87
Hamsik Academy
1.42

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par
Hamsik Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Hamsik Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Malženice or draw
77%
Malženice or Hamsik Academy
78%
Draw or Hamsik Academy
45%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+
32%
Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals
85%
Malženice 2+ goals
57%
Malženice 3+ goals
30%
Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
69%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
32%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)
71%
Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.87 · 39 matches

Hamsik Academy away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 2.41 + Hamsik Academy defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.92

Hamsik Academy attack 1.44 + Malženice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Malženice scores more
55%
level
22%
Hamsik Academy scores more
23%

Malženice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Malženice 1–2 Hamsik Academy

Hamsik Academy beat Malženice 2-1 in 3. liga - West on November 16, 2022.

The match was played at TJ Slovan Červeník futbalový štadión in Červeník.