Malženice 3–0 Dolný Kubín: Result & Stats | 2. liga

Malženice

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dolný Kubín

T. Poznar 76'

Dyjan 74'

J. Paur 45'

4/20/2024

2. liga · Round 25Futbalový štadión Malženice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Malženice64%

×Draw21%

Dolný Kubín15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalženiceExpected goals in this matchDolný Kubín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

0.88

Malženice

2.03

Dolný Kubín

0.88

Malženice creates 131% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

1.49

creates per match

0.70

1.05

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Malženice

1.49

Dolný Kubín

0.70

allows per match

Malženice

1.05

Dolný Kubín

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malženice+0.00on par

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malženice ↓

Dolný Kubín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Malženice or draw

85%

Malženice or Dolný Kubín

79%

Draw or Dolný Kubín

36%

Winning margin

Malženice wins by 2+

39%

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Malženice 1+ goals

87%

Malženice 2+ goals

60%

Malženice 3+ goals

33%

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals

59%

Dolný Kubín 2+ goals

22%

Dolný Kubín 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Malženice (draw refunded)

80%

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malženice at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malženice attack 1.49 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.03

Dolný Kubín attack 0.70 + Malženice defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Malženice scores more

64%

level

21%

Dolný Kubín scores more

15%

Malženice at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Malženice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

J. Paur

57'

P. Chovan← T. Kotlár

62'

I. Sarr

63'

B. Gvaradze← M. Köröš

65'

65'

70'

74'

76'

77'

81'

85'

89'

T. Justh← Dyjan

Malženice

Dolný

1

18

3

4

16

8

17

6

▼

Svetlík

9

▼

Brnča

11

▼

14

1

19

17

10

⚽

▼

Dyjan

77

⚽

▼

9

27

8

7

▼

Kotlár

21

Karhan

99

▼

Rapavý

Manager: P. Bartoš

57'▲P. Chovan←▼T. Kotlár

65'▲S. Štefánik←▼J. Paur

65'▲T. Poznar←▼D. Rapavý

89'▲T. Justh←▼Dyjan

Malženice substitutes

18Chovan26Štefánik12Poznar3Justh6Šarmír20Rusnák41Vasiľ16Slovák

Manager: R. Korytář

63'▲B. Gvaradze←▼M. Köröš

77'▲S. Farský←▼S. Brnča

85'▲A. Jurik←▼S. Svetlík

Dolný Kubín substitutes

15Gvaradze10Farský13Jurik20Holubčík