Malvern Town 1–3 Frome Town: Result & Stats

Malvern Town

FT

1 – 3

Frome Town

11/4/2023

League #56 · Southern South - 12HD Anywhere Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Malvern Town28%

×Draw19%

Frome Town53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malvern TownExpected goals in this matchFrome Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

2.63

Malvern Town

1.91

Frome Town

2.63

Frome Town creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

2.50

creates per match

2.25

3.00

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Malvern Town

2.50

Frome Town

2.25

allows per match

Malvern Town

3.00

Frome Town

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malvern Town+0.00on par

Frome Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malvern Town ↓

Frome Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Malvern Town or draw

47%

Malvern Town or Frome Town

81%

Draw or Frome Town

72%

Winning margin

Malvern Town wins by 2+

14%

Frome Town wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Malvern Town 1+ goals

85%

Malvern Town 2+ goals

57%

Malvern Town 3+ goals

30%

Frome Town 1+ goals

93%

Frome Town 2+ goals

73%

Frome Town 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Malvern Town (draw refunded)

35%

Frome Town (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malvern Town at home — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Frome Town away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malvern Town attack 2.50 + Frome Town defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.91

Frome Town attack 2.25 + Malvern Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Malvern Town scores more

28%

level

19%

Frome Town scores more

53%

Frome Town at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Frome Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff