Malvern Town 3–1 Falmouth Town: Result & Stats

Malvern Town

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Falmouth Town

2/28/2026

League #56

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Malvern Town50%

×Draw19%

Falmouth Town31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malvern TownExpected goals in this matchFalmouth Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

2.09

Malvern Town

2.66

Falmouth Town

2.09

Malvern Town creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

2.50

creates per match

1.18

3.00

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Malvern Town

2.50

Falmouth Town

1.18

allows per match

Malvern Town

3.00

Falmouth Town

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malvern Town+0.00on par

Falmouth Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malvern Town ↓

Falmouth Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Malvern Town or draw

69%

Malvern Town or Falmouth Town

81%

Draw or Falmouth Town

50%

Winning margin

Malvern Town wins by 2+

32%

Falmouth Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Malvern Town 1+ goals

93%

Malvern Town 2+ goals

74%

Malvern Town 3+ goals

49%

Falmouth Town 1+ goals

88%

Falmouth Town 2+ goals

62%

Falmouth Town 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Malvern Town (draw refunded)

62%

Falmouth Town (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malvern Town at home — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Falmouth Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malvern Town attack 2.50 + Falmouth Town defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.66

Falmouth Town attack 1.18 + Malvern Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Malvern Town scores more

50%

level

19%

Falmouth Town scores more

31%

Malvern Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Malvern Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff