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Maltepespor vs Menemen FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Maltepespor
Maltepespor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Menemen FK
Menemen FK
9/25/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundMaltepe Hasan Polat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maltepespor46%
×Draw25%
Menemen FK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maltepespor
1.60
Menemen FK
1.23

Maltepespor creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Maltepespor
1.00
Menemen FK
0.80

allows per match

Maltepespor
1.67
Menemen FK
2.20

finishing

Maltepespor+0.00on par
Menemen FK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maltepespor ↓

Menemen FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Maltepespor or draw
71%
Maltepespor or Menemen FK
75%
Draw or Menemen FK
54%

Winning margin

Maltepespor wins by 2+
24%
Menemen FK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Maltepespor 1+ goals
80%
Maltepespor 2+ goals
47%
Maltepespor 3+ goals
22%
Menemen FK 1+ goals
71%
Menemen FK 2+ goals
35%
Menemen FK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Maltepespor (draw refunded)
61%
Menemen FK (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maltepespor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Menemen FK away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maltepespor attack 1.00 + Menemen FK defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Menemen FK attack 0.80 + Maltepespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Maltepespor scores more
46%
level
25%
Menemen FK scores more
29%

Maltepespor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maltepespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Maltepespor 1–2 Menemen FK

Menemen FK beat Maltepespor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2018.

The match was played at Maltepe Hasan Polat Stadı in İstanbul.