Maltepespor 1–3 Esenler Erokspor: Result & Stats

Maltepespor

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Esenler Erokspor

H. Atcı 12'

E. Pazar 90+4'

E. Adiloğlu 45+1', 34'

9/11/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundMaltepe Hasan Polat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maltepespor31%

×Draw24%

Esenler Erokspor45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaltepesporExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.67

Maltepespor

1.33

Esenler Erokspor

1.67

Esenler Erokspor creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

1.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Maltepespor

1.00

Esenler Erokspor

1.67

allows per match

Maltepespor

1.67

Esenler Erokspor

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maltepespor+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maltepespor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Maltepespor or draw

55%

Maltepespor or Esenler Erokspor

76%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

69%

Winning margin

Maltepespor wins by 2+

13%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Maltepespor 1+ goals

74%

Maltepespor 2+ goals

38%

Maltepespor 3+ goals

15%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

81%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

50%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Maltepespor (draw refunded)

40%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maltepespor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maltepespor attack 1.00 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.67 + Maltepespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Maltepespor scores more

31%

level

24%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

45%

Esenler Erokspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

34'

45+1'

46'

67'

N. Kaya← Y. Ayaz

69'

B. Engin← A. Kuyucu

84'

A. Akkurt← T. Sözbir

84'

G. Gelmen← B. Akıncı

88'

E. Tekgül← E. Adiloğlu

90+4'

E. Pazar

Maltepespor

Esenler

40

23

4

16

36

▼

10

6

30

97

⚽2

▼

Adiloğlu

7

▼

Kuyucu

99

⚽

99

7

22

44

37

19

28

17

⚽

Atcı

12

▼

Özel

75

▼

Sözbir

9

▼

Ayaz

Manager: A. Bakoğlu

46'▲Ü. Avcı←▼M. Özel

67'▲N. Kaya←▼Y. Ayaz

84'▲A. Akkurt←▼T. Sözbir

Maltepespor substitutes

53Avcı20Kaya61Akkurt39Önür45Gölükcü27Ersoy5Akkuru

Manager: H. Sevim

69'▲B. Engin←▼A. Kuyucu

84'▲G. Gelmen←▼B. Akıncı

88'▲E. Tekgül←▼E. Adiloğlu

Esenler Erokspor substitutes

17Engin33Gelmen77Tekgül25Akın11Fıstıkcı3Morgil20Özcan

Türkiye Kupası: Maltepespor 1–3 Esenler Erokspor

Esenler Erokspor beat Maltepespor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2019.

Goals: H. Atcı (12'), E. Adiloğlu (34', 45+1'), E. Pazar (90+4').

The match was played at Maltepe Hasan Polat Stadı in İstanbul.

Maltepespor vs Esenler Erokspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Türkiye Kupası: Maltepespor 1–3 Esenler Erokspor