Malta W 0–4 Slovakia W: Result & Stats

Malta W

0 – 4

Slovakia W

M. Mikolajova 90+4'

L. Ondrusova 74'

K. Panakova 22'

V. Slukova 10'

2/18/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Hibernians Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Malta W55%

×Draw23%

Slovakia W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malta WExpected goals in this matchSlovakia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.05

Malta W

1.80

Slovakia W

1.05

Malta W creates 71% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.17

creates per match

0.44

1.67

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Malta W

1.17

Slovakia W

0.44

allows per match

Malta W

1.67

Slovakia W

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malta W+0.00on par

Slovakia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta W ↓

Slovakia W →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Malta W or draw

78%

Malta W or Slovakia W

77%

Draw or Slovakia W

45%

Winning margin

Malta W wins by 2+

31%

Slovakia W wins by 2+

Team goals

Malta W 1+ goals

83%

Malta W 2+ goals

54%

Malta W 3+ goals

27%

Slovakia W 1+ goals

65%

Slovakia W 2+ goals

28%

Slovakia W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Malta W (draw refunded)

71%

Slovakia W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Malta W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Slovakia W away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Malta W attack 1.17 + Slovakia W defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.80

Slovakia W attack 0.44 + Malta W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Malta W scores more

55%

level

23%

Slovakia W scores more

22%

Malta W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Malta W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

V. Slukova

22'

K. Panakova

74'

L. Ondrusova

90+4'

M. Mikolajova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff