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Malta W vs Faroe Islands W — Friendlies Women 2020

Malta W
Malta W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Faroe Islands W
Faroe Islands W
2/22/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Tony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Malta W45%
×Draw24%
Faroe Islands W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta W
1.64
Faroe Islands W
1.33

Malta W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Malta W
1.17
Faroe Islands W
1.00

allows per match

Malta W
1.67
Faroe Islands W
2.11

finishing

Malta W+0.00on par
Faroe Islands W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta W ↓

Faroe Islands W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Malta W or draw
69%
Malta W or Faroe Islands W
76%
Draw or Faroe Islands W
55%

Winning margin

Malta W wins by 2+
23%
Faroe Islands W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Malta W 1+ goals
81%
Malta W 2+ goals
49%
Malta W 3+ goals
23%
Faroe Islands W 1+ goals
74%
Faroe Islands W 2+ goals
38%
Faroe Islands W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Malta W (draw refunded)
59%
Faroe Islands W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Faroe Islands W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta W attack 1.17 + Faroe Islands W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.64

Faroe Islands W attack 1.00 + Malta W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Malta W scores more
45%
level
24%
Faroe Islands W scores more
31%

Malta W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malta W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Malta W 2–0 Faroe Islands W

Malta W beat Faroe Islands W 2-0 in Friendlies Women on February 22, 2024.

The match was played at Tony Bezzina Stadium in Paola.