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Malta vs Rep. Of Ireland — Friendlies 2026

Malta
Malta
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rep. Of Ireland
Rep. Of Ireland
C. Robinson 55'
11/20/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Malta40%
×Draw29%
Rep. Of Ireland30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
1.17
Rep. Of Ireland
0.97

Malta creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Malta
1.16
Rep. Of Ireland
0.73

allows per match

Malta
1.21
Rep. Of Ireland
1.18

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Malta or draw
70%
Malta or Rep. Of Ireland
71%
Draw or Rep. Of Ireland
60%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
17%
Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
69%
Malta 2+ goals
33%
Malta 3+ goals
11%
Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals
62%
Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals
25%
Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
57%
Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 1.16 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.73 + Malta defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Malta scores more
40%
level
29%
Rep. Of Ireland scores more
30%

Malta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Malta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
J. McGrathRep. Of IrelandRep. Of Ireland · M
7.9

Match Events

20'
D. Vella← B. Kristensen
48'
N. Collins
51'
E. Pepe
52'
S. Pisani← D. Vella
55'
C. Robinson
66'
C. O'Dowda← J. McClean
66'
J. Hendrick← A. Browne
67'
L. Gambin← J. Jones
73'
L. Montebello← A. Satariano
73'
K. Shaw← F. Apap
77'
E. Ferguson← C. Ogbene
85'
M. Sykes← C. Robinson
88'
K. Nwoko← T. Teuma
90+2'
R. Camenzuli

Possession

44%Malta

Shots

6Malta

Pass accuracy

49%Malta

Statistics

MaltaRep.
Overview
44%Possession56%
6Total Shots13
1Corners6
15Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots13
1On Target3
4Off Target5
1Blocked5
2Inside Box5
4Outside Box8
Passing
44%Possession56%
433Total Passes537
355Accurate Passes466
82%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Friendlies: Malta 0–1 Rep. Of Ireland

Rep. Of Ireland beat Malta 1-0 in Friendlies on November 20, 2022.

Goals: C. Robinson (55').

Rep. Of Ireland controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.