Malta 0–2 Luxembourg: Result & Stats

Malta

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Luxembourg

Mathias Olesen 90+3'

Vincent Thill 47'

3/26/2026

UEFA Nations League · Play-offs C/DTa'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Malta25%

×Draw28%

Luxembourg47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaltaExpected goals in this matchLuxembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.35

Malta

0.91

Luxembourg

1.35

Luxembourg creates 48% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

0.89

creates per match

1.38

1.33

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Malta

0.89

Luxembourg

1.38

allows per match

Malta

1.33

Luxembourg

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malta+0.00on par

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Luxembourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Malta or draw

53%

Malta or Luxembourg

72%

Draw or Luxembourg

75%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+

9%

Luxembourg wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals

60%

Malta 2+ goals

23%

Malta 3+ goals

6%

Luxembourg 1+ goals

74%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

39%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)

35%

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 0.89 + Luxembourg defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Luxembourg attack 1.38 + Malta defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Malta scores more

25%

level

28%

Luxembourg scores more

47%

Luxembourg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Vincent Thill

Luxembourg · M

7.7

Match Events

37'

Jake Grech← Teddy Teuma

47'

Vincent Thill↳ Florian Bohnert

60'

Alexander Satariano

68'

Sebastien Thill← Vincent Thill

69'

Tiago Pereira Cardoso← Anthony Moris

69'

Jayson Videira Pereira← Aiman Dardari

78'

Juan Corbalan← Zach Muscat

78'

Trent Buhagiar← Alexander Satariano

87'

Andrea Zammit← Matthew Guillaumier

87'

Brandon Paiber← Paul Mbong

88'

Tomas de Sousa Moreira← Christopher Martins Pereira

89'

Enrico Pepe

90+3'

Mathias Olesen

90'

Enzo Duarte← Danel Sinani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MaltaLuxembourg

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots7

1Corners3

11Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots7

3On Target2

6Off Target1

1Blocked4

9Inside Box5

1Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

375Total Passes504

289Accurate Passes438

77%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3