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Malta vs Lithuania — League #32 2026

Malta
Malta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lithuania
Lithuania
A. Agius 23'
V. Slivka 53'
10/5/2017League #32League #32 · 1st Round - 9Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Malta35%
×Draw31%
Lithuania35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
1.00
Lithuania
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Malta
0.25
Lithuania
0.50

allows per match

Malta
1.50
Lithuania
1.75

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Lithuania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Malta or draw
65%
Malta or Lithuania
69%
Draw or Lithuania
65%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
13%
Lithuania wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
63%
Malta 2+ goals
26%
Malta 3+ goals
8%
Lithuania 1+ goals
63%
Lithuania 2+ goals
26%
Lithuania 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
50%
Lithuania (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 0.25 + Lithuania defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Lithuania attack 0.50 + Malta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Malta scores more
35%
level
31%
Lithuania scores more
35%

Malta at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Malta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
J. ZerafaMaltaMalta · M
8.3

Match Events

22'
Mantas Kuklys
23'
A. Agius↳ J. Zerafa
42'
Edvinas Girdvainis
46'
C. Failla← A. Schembri
46'
M. Papšys← N. Valskis
53'
V. Slivka↳ E. Vaitkūnas
74'
Zach Muscat
80'
L. Spalvis← D. Matulevičius
86'
C. Borg← L. Gambin
90+2'
C. Attard← P. Fenech

Possession

42%Malta

Shots

4Malta

Pass accuracy

48%Malta

Statistics

MaltaLithuania
Overview
42%Possession58%
4Total Shots15
2Corners6
11Fouls17
Shots
4Total Shots15
3On Target4
1Off Target7
0Blocked4
1Inside Box4
3Outside Box11
Passing
42%Possession58%
384Total Passes504
299Accurate Passes417
78%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls17
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides5

Match Recap: Malta vs Lithuania

Malta and Lithuania drew 1-1 in League #32 on October 5, 2017.

Goals: A. Agius (23'), V. Slivka (53').

Lithuania controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.