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Malta vs Liechtenstein — Friendlies 2026

Malta
Malta
CANC
00:00
Liechtenstein
Liechtenstein
3/28/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Malta62%
×Draw22%
Liechtenstein16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
1.87
Liechtenstein
0.81

Malta creates 131% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Malta
1.16
Liechtenstein
0.42

allows per match

Malta
1.21
Liechtenstein
2.58

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Liechtenstein+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Liechtenstein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Malta or draw
84%
Malta or Liechtenstein
78%
Draw or Liechtenstein
38%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
37%
Liechtenstein wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
85%
Malta 2+ goals
56%
Malta 3+ goals
29%
Liechtenstein 1+ goals
56%
Liechtenstein 2+ goals
19%
Liechtenstein 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
80%
Liechtenstein (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Liechtenstein away — creates 0.42, concedes 2.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 1.16 + Liechtenstein defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.87

Liechtenstein attack 0.42 + Malta defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Malta scores more
62%
level
22%
Liechtenstein scores more
16%

Malta at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Malta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malta vs Liechtenstein — Match Preview

Malta face Liechtenstein on March 28, 2020 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Malta host Liechtenstein at Ta'Qali National Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.