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Malta vs Kuwait — Friendlies 2026

Malta
Malta
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kuwait
Kuwait
T. Teuma 33'
A. Satariano 29'
3/29/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Malta52%
×Draw26%
Kuwait22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
1.54
Kuwait
0.90

Malta creates 71% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Malta
1.16
Kuwait
0.58

allows per match

Malta
1.21
Kuwait
1.92

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Kuwait+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Kuwait →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Malta or draw
78%
Malta or Kuwait
74%
Draw or Kuwait
48%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
27%
Kuwait wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
79%
Malta 2+ goals
45%
Malta 3+ goals
20%
Kuwait 1+ goals
59%
Kuwait 2+ goals
23%
Kuwait 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
70%
Kuwait (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Kuwait away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 1.16 + Kuwait defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kuwait attack 0.58 + Malta defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Malta scores more
52%
level
26%
Kuwait scores more
22%

Malta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Malta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Fawaz Ayedh Al Otaibi
29'
A. Satariano
33'
T. Teuma
34'
Ibraheem Kameel
46'
Bader Al Mutawa← Redha Abujabarah
46'
Talal Al Fadhil← Fawaz Al Otaibi
46'
Sultan Al Enezi← Fahad Al Ansari
46'
Eissa Waleed← Khaled Sabah
58'
Z. Muscat← S. Borg
58'
L. Montebello← J. Degabriele
68'
Hussain Kankone← Ahmad Al Khaledi
72'
S. Pisani← M. Guillaumier
72'
R. Camenzuli← J. Mbong
80'
Yousef Al Salman← Mubarak Al Faneni
82'
B. Paiber← T. Teuma
83'
J. Grech← A. Satariano

Possession

53%Malta

Shots

14Malta

Statistics

MaltaKuwait
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots8
4Corners3
16Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots8
7On Target5
7Off Target3
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Friendlies: Malta 2–0 Kuwait

Malta beat Kuwait 2-0 in Friendlies on March 29, 2022.

Goals: A. Satariano (29'), T. Teuma (33').

Malta controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.