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Malta vs Estonia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Malta
Malta
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Estonia
Estonia
K. Hein 56' (OG)
H. Anier 90+4'
K. Vassiljev 21'
6/9/2022UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League D - 3Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Malta31%
×Draw30%
Estonia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
0.95
Estonia
1.11

Estonia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Malta
0.89
Estonia
0.89

allows per match

Malta
1.33
Estonia
1.00

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Estonia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Estonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Malta or draw
61%
Malta or Estonia
70%
Draw or Estonia
69%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
11%
Estonia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
61%
Malta 2+ goals
25%
Malta 3+ goals
7%
Estonia 1+ goals
67%
Estonia 2+ goals
30%
Estonia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
44%
Estonia (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Estonia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 0.89 + Estonia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Estonia attack 0.89 + Malta defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Malta scores more
31%
level
30%
Estonia scores more
39%

Estonia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Estonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. SoometsEstoniaEstonia · M
7.6

Match Events

14'
Jurgen DegabrielePenalty awarded
21'
K. Vassiljev↳ M. Soomets
48'
Mattias Käit
56'
K. HeinOwn goal
60'
S. Zenjov← R. Kirss
60'
H. Anier← E. Sorga
69'
L. Montebello← A. Satariano
77'
Matthew Guillaumier
80'
D. Vella← M. Guillaumier
80'
L. Gambin← J. Degabriele
85'
Z. Muscat← J. Borg
90+3'
Sergei Zenjov
90+6'
M. Miller← K. Vassiljev
90+4'
H. Anier↳ S. Zenjov

Possession

65%Malta

Shots

9Malta

Pass accuracy

54%Malta

Statistics

MaltaEstonia
Overview
65%Possession35%
9Total Shots8
3Corners7
6Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots8
2On Target6
4Off Target2
3Blocked0
5Inside Box3
4Outside Box5
Passing
65%Possession35%
494Total Passes262
407Accurate Passes184
82%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Malta 1 – 2 Estonia

Estonia beat Malta 2-1 in UEFA Nations League on June 9, 2022.

Goals: K. Vassiljev (21'), K. Hein (56' o.g.), H. Anier (90+4').

Malta controlled possession (65%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.