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Malta vs Belarus — Friendlies 2026

Malta
Malta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Belarus
Belarus
3/26/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Malta28%
×Draw28%
Belarus44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
0.98
Belarus
1.29

Belarus creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

creates per match

Malta
1.16
Belarus
1.38

allows per match

Malta
1.21
Belarus
0.81

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Belarus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malta or draw
56%
Malta or Belarus
72%
Draw or Belarus
72%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
10%
Belarus wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
62%
Malta 2+ goals
26%
Malta 3+ goals
8%
Belarus 1+ goals
72%
Belarus 2+ goals
37%
Belarus 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
39%
Belarus (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Belarus away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 1.16 + Belarus defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.98

Belarus attack 1.38 + Malta defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Malta scores more
28%
level
28%
Belarus scores more
44%

Belarus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
Carlo Zammit Lonardelli
42'
Kirill Pechenin
46'
D. Vella← Y. Yankam
46'
R. Al-Tumi← H. Bonello
46'
K. Kaplenko← E. Yablonskiy
46'
S. Karpovich← D. Nechaev
59'
V. Morozov← A. Shumanskiy
59'
V. Gromyko← M. Ebong
65'
N. Portelli← K. Nwoko
65'
B. Paiber← N. Muscat
65'
C. Attard← C. Lonardelli
77'
I. Chernyak← K. Pechenin
83'
E. Karpitskiy← M. Kireev
84'
M. Beerman← J. Mbong
88'
Nikita Korzun
90'
Brandon Paiber

Possession

45%Malta

Shots

14Malta

Statistics

MaltaBelarus
Overview
45%Possession55%
14Total Shots5
5Corners2
19Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots5
6On Target1
5Off Target4
Passing
45%Possession55%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
19Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2

Friendlies: Malta 0–0 Belarus

Malta and Belarus drew 0-0 in Friendlies on March 26, 2024.

Belarus controlled possession (55%) and registered 5 shots to 14.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.