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Malta vs Azerbaijan — Friendlies 2026

Malta
Malta
CANC
00:00
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
3/30/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Malta38%
×Draw27%
Azerbaijan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
1.27
Azerbaijan
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Malta
1.16
Azerbaijan
1.23

allows per match

Malta
1.21
Azerbaijan
1.38

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Azerbaijan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Azerbaijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Malta or draw
65%
Malta or Azerbaijan
73%
Draw or Azerbaijan
62%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
17%
Azerbaijan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
72%
Malta 2+ goals
36%
Malta 3+ goals
14%
Azerbaijan 1+ goals
70%
Azerbaijan 2+ goals
34%
Azerbaijan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
52%
Azerbaijan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Azerbaijan away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 1.16 + Azerbaijan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Azerbaijan attack 1.23 + Malta defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Malta scores more
38%
level
27%
Azerbaijan scores more
35%

Malta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Malta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malta vs Azerbaijan — Match Preview

Malta face Azerbaijan on March 30, 2020 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Malta host Azerbaijan at Ta'Qali National Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.