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Malta U19 W vs Romania U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Malta U19 W
Malta U19 W
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Romania U19 W
Romania U19 W
2/28/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Malta U19 W20%
×Draw16%
Romania U19 W64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta U19 W
1.81
Romania U19 W
3.20

Romania U19 W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Malta U19 W
1.83
Romania U19 W
3.40

allows per match

Malta U19 W
3.00
Romania U19 W
1.80

finishing

Malta U19 W+0.00on par
Romania U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta U19 W ↓

Romania U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Malta U19 W or draw
36%
Malta U19 W or Romania U19 W
84%
Draw or Romania U19 W
80%

Winning margin

Malta U19 W wins by 2+
9%
Romania U19 W wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Malta U19 W 1+ goals
84%
Malta U19 W 2+ goals
54%
Malta U19 W 3+ goals
27%
Romania U19 W 1+ goals
96%
Romania U19 W 2+ goals
82%
Romania U19 W 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Malta U19 W (draw refunded)
24%
Romania U19 W (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta U19 W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Romania U19 W away — creates 3.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta U19 W attack 1.83 + Romania U19 W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

Romania U19 W attack 3.40 + Malta U19 W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Malta U19 W scores more
20%
level
16%
Romania U19 W scores more
64%

Romania U19 W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Romania U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Malta U19 W 0–5 Romania U19 W

Romania U19 W beat Malta U19 W 5-0 in Friendlies Women on February 28, 2026.