Malta U19 0–1 Northern Ireland U19: Result & Stats

Malta U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Northern Ireland U19

J. Simpson 25'

11/12/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Malta U1914%

×Draw23%

Northern Ireland U1963%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malta U19Expected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.66

1.73

Malta U19

0.66

Northern Ireland U19

1.73

Northern Ireland U19 creates 162% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

0.40

creates per match

0.67

2.80

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Malta U19

0.40

Northern Ireland U19

0.67

allows per match

Malta U19

2.80

Northern Ireland U19

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malta U19+0.00on par

Northern Ireland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta U19 ↓

Northern Ireland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–116%

0–214%

0–38%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Malta U19 or draw

37%

Malta U19 or Northern Ireland U19

77%

Draw or Northern Ireland U19

86%

Winning margin

Malta U19 wins by 2+

4%

Northern Ireland U19 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Malta U19 1+ goals

48%

Malta U19 2+ goals

14%

Malta U19 3+ goals

3%

Northern Ireland U19 1+ goals

82%

Northern Ireland U19 2+ goals

52%

Northern Ireland U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Malta U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Northern Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta U19 at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Northern Ireland U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta U19 attack 0.40 + Northern Ireland U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.66

Northern Ireland U19 attack 0.67 + Malta U19 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Malta U19 scores more

14%

level

23%

Northern Ireland U19 scores more

63%

Northern Ireland U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Northern Ireland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

27'

37'

38'

47'

65'

J. Doherty← P. McGovern

65'

K. Thompson← C. O'Neill

66'

L. Abela← E. Piscopo

66'

A. Vella← J. Camilleri

77'

G. Feeney

78'

L. Micallef← D. Farrugia

78'

J. Vella← M. Amin

88'

S. Borg

89'

N. Zerafa← A. Agius

90'

J. Simpson

Malta

Northern

1

Gracey

14

Matykiewi

5

⚽

Simpson

4

Sewell

3

Hawthorne

11

▼

8

7

16

10

9

▼

1

5

6

13

▼

Agius

3

▼

Amin

7

▼

Farrugia

15

▼

Camilleri

10

Borg

8

Melillo

20

▼

Piscopo

9

Bartolo

Manager: P. Gatt

66'▲L. Abela←▼E. Piscopo

66'▲A. Vella←▼J. Camilleri

78'▲L. Micallef←▼D. Farrugia

78'▲J. Vella←▼M. Amin

89'▲N. Zerafa←▼A. Agius

Malta U19 substitutes

12Camilleri2Grima4Bugeja11Abela14Vella16Micallef17Vella18Xiberras19Zerafa

Manager: G. McAuley

65'▲J. Doherty←▼P. McGovern

65'▲K. Thompson←▼C. O'Neill

Northern Ireland U19 substitutes

12Murdock2Leacock6Doherty13Downey15Friars17Stitt18Thompson19Sheridan20Walker

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Malta U19 0–1 Northern Ireland U19

Northern Ireland U19 beat Malta U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 12, 2025.

Goals: J. Simpson (25').

Malta U19 vs Northern Ireland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Malta U19 0–1 Northern Ireland U19