Malta U19 0–4 Luxembourg U19: Result & Stats

Malta U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Luxembourg U19

J. Polfer 88'

S. Welter 63'

A. Tavares dos Santos 48'

J. Gomes Rodrigues 37'

3/31/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualification - Round 1 - League B - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Malta U1923%

×Draw22%

Luxembourg U1956%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malta U19Expected goals in this matchLuxembourg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.96

Malta U19

1.17

Luxembourg U19

1.96

Luxembourg U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

0.40

creates per match

1.13

2.80

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Malta U19

0.40

Luxembourg U19

1.13

allows per match

Malta U19

2.80

Luxembourg U19

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malta U19+0.00on par

Luxembourg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta U19 ↓

Luxembourg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Malta U19 or draw

44%

Malta U19 or Luxembourg U19

78%

Draw or Luxembourg U19

77%

Winning margin

Malta U19 wins by 2+

9%

Luxembourg U19 wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Malta U19 1+ goals

69%

Malta U19 2+ goals

33%

Malta U19 3+ goals

11%

Luxembourg U19 1+ goals

86%

Luxembourg U19 2+ goals

58%

Luxembourg U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Malta U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Luxembourg U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta U19 at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Luxembourg U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta U19 attack 0.40 + Luxembourg U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Luxembourg U19 attack 1.13 + Malta U19 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Malta U19 scores more

23%

level

22%

Luxembourg U19 scores more

56%

Luxembourg U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Luxembourg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

J. Gomes Rodrigues↳ L. Carolei

48'

A. Tavares dos Santos↳ J. Gomes Rodrigues

58'

B. Flavell← S. Camilleri

58'

M. P. Grech← E. Brincat Winters

63'

S. Welter↳ E. Lima

67'

U. Luke← B. Spiteri

67'

G. Elliott← Z. Vella Newell

67'

R. Fernandes← S. Welter

78'

M. Chedid← L. Carolei

84'

Z. Formosa← J. Camilleri

87'

A. De Oliveira← E. Lima

87'

D. Jordao Machado← A. Tavares dos Santos

88'

J. Polfer↳ H. Kadamani

Malta

Luxembourg

12

4

14

5

22

A

▼

Lima

6

A

▼

Carolei

19

⚽

▼

Santos

8

A

Kadamani

11

⚽

▼

Welter

7

⚽A

Rodrigues

9

⚽

1

2

5

6

13

16

▼

Spiteri

10

▼

Camilleri

14

Vella

15

▼

Camilleri

11

▼

Newell

20

▼

Winters

Manager: P. Gatt

58'▲B. Flavell←▼S. Camilleri

58'▲M. P. Grech←▼E. Brincat Winters

67'▲U. Luke←▼B. Spiteri

67'▲G. Elliott←▼Z. Vella Newell

84'▲Z. Formosa←▼J. Camilleri

Malta U19 substitutes

12Farrugia3Cauchi4Formosa7Luke8Flavell9Grech17Farrugia18Elliott19Zarb

67'▲R. Fernandes←▼S. Welter

78'▲M. Chedid←▼L. Carolei

87'▲A. De Oliveira←▼E. Lima

87'▲D. Jordao Machado←▼A. Tavares dos Santos

Luxembourg U19 substitutes

1Novalic2Silva3Garcia10Pereira13Fernandes15Chedid16Oliveira17Machado21Rasiti