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Malta U19 vs Kosovo U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Malta U19
Malta U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kosovo U19
Kosovo U19
11/21/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8MFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Malta U1924%
×Draw22%
Kosovo U1954%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta U19
1.24
Kosovo U19
1.94

Kosovo U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Malta U19
0.40
Kosovo U19
1.08

allows per match

Malta U19
2.80
Kosovo U19
2.08

finishing

Malta U19+0.00on par
Kosovo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta U19 ↓

Kosovo U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Malta U19 or draw
46%
Malta U19 or Kosovo U19
78%
Draw or Kosovo U19
76%

Winning margin

Malta U19 wins by 2+
10%
Kosovo U19 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Malta U19 1+ goals
71%
Malta U19 2+ goals
35%
Malta U19 3+ goals
13%
Kosovo U19 1+ goals
86%
Kosovo U19 2+ goals
58%
Kosovo U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Malta U19 (draw refunded)
31%
Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta U19 at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Kosovo U19 away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta U19 attack 0.40 + Kosovo U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Kosovo U19 attack 1.08 + Malta U19 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Malta U19 scores more
24%
level
22%
Kosovo U19 scores more
54%

Kosovo U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kosovo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Malta U19 2–2 Kosovo U19

Malta U19 and Kosovo U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 21, 2023.

The match was played at MFA Centenary Stadium in Ta'Qali.