Malta U19 0–4 Italy U19: Result & Stats

Malta U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Italy U19

S. Vignato 90+2' (pen)

L. D'Andrea 47'

F. Esposito 32' (pen)

C. Ndour 19' (pen)

7/3/2023

UEFA U19 Championship · Group Stage - 1Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Malta U1918%

×Draw21%

Italy U1962%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malta U19Expected goals in this matchItaly U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

2.08

Malta U19

1.01

Italy U19

2.08

Italy U19 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

0.67

creates per match

1.82

2.33

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Malta U19

0.67

Italy U19

1.82

allows per match

Malta U19

2.33

Italy U19

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malta U19+0.00on par

Italy U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta U19 ↓

Italy U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Malta U19 or draw

38%

Malta U19 or Italy U19

79%

Draw or Italy U19

82%

Winning margin

Malta U19 wins by 2+

6%

Italy U19 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Malta U19 1+ goals

64%

Malta U19 2+ goals

27%

Malta U19 3+ goals

8%

Italy U19 1+ goals

87%

Italy U19 2+ goals

61%

Italy U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Malta U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Italy U19 away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta U19 attack 0.67 + Italy U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.01

Italy U19 attack 1.82 + Malta U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Malta U19 scores more

18%

level

21%

Italy U19 scores more

62%

Italy U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Esposito

Italy U19 · F

8.5

Match Events

19'

C. NdourPenalty

32'

F. EspositoPenalty

35'

Jake Micallef

42'

Jake Micallef

42'

Jake Micallef

46'

T. Viviani← A. Bridgman

47'

L. D'Andrea↳ L. Amatucci

50'

Iacopo Regonesi

59'

N. Cross← B. Tuma

59'

D. Letherby← L. Caruana

65'

S. Vignato← L. DAndrea

72'

B. Hili← M. Ellul

75'

N. Turco← F. Esposito

75'

N. Pisilli← L. Lipani

76'

L. Hasa← L. Koleosho

85'

B. Borg← D. Scicluna

86'

A. Dellavalle← I. Regonesi

90+2'

S. VignatoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MaltaItaly

Overview

29%Possession71%

3Total Shots33

1Corners10

17Fouls10

Shots

3Total Shots33

0On Target10

3Off Target7

0Blocked16

1Inside Box22

2Outside Box11

Passing

29%Possession71%

212Total Passes520

132Accurate Passes449

62%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1