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Malta U19 vs Albania U19 — Friendlies 2026

Malta U19
Malta U19
FT
0 – 1
Albania U19
Albania U19
3/20/2024FriendliesFriendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Malta U1920%
×Draw21%
Albania U1960%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta U19
1.13
Albania U19
2.13

Albania U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Malta U19
0.75
Albania U19
0.75

allows per match

Malta U19
3.50
Albania U19
1.50

finishing

Malta U19+0.00on par
Albania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta U19 ↓

Albania U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Malta U19 or draw
40%
Malta U19 or Albania U19
79%
Draw or Albania U19
80%

Winning margin

Malta U19 wins by 2+
7%
Albania U19 wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Malta U19 1+ goals
68%
Malta U19 2+ goals
31%
Malta U19 3+ goals
11%
Albania U19 1+ goals
88%
Albania U19 2+ goals
63%
Albania U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Malta U19 (draw refunded)
25%
Albania U19 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta U19 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Albania U19 away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta U19 attack 0.75 + Albania U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Albania U19 attack 0.75 + Malta U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Malta U19 scores more
20%
level
21%
Albania U19 scores more
60%

Albania U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Albania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malta U19 vs Albania U19

Albania U19 beat Malta U19 1-0 in Friendlies on March 20, 2024.