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Malta U17 vs Montenegro U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Malta U17
Malta U17
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Montenegro U17
Montenegro U17
10/12/2021UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Tony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Malta U1725%
×Draw23%
Montenegro U1752%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta U17
1.23
Montenegro U17
1.86

Montenegro U17 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Malta U17
1.00
Montenegro U17
1.23

allows per match

Malta U17
2.50
Montenegro U17
1.46

finishing

Malta U17+0.00on par
Montenegro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta U17 ↓

Montenegro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Malta U17 or draw
48%
Malta U17 or Montenegro U17
77%
Draw or Montenegro U17
75%

Winning margin

Malta U17 wins by 2+
10%
Montenegro U17 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Malta U17 1+ goals
71%
Malta U17 2+ goals
35%
Malta U17 3+ goals
13%
Montenegro U17 1+ goals
84%
Montenegro U17 2+ goals
55%
Montenegro U17 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Malta U17 (draw refunded)
33%
Montenegro U17 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta U17 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Montenegro U17 away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta U17 attack 1.00 + Montenegro U17 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Montenegro U17 attack 1.23 + Malta U17 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Malta U17 scores more
25%
level
23%
Montenegro U17 scores more
52%

Montenegro U17 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Montenegro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malta U17 vs Montenegro U17

Montenegro U17 beat Malta U17 3-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 12, 2021.

The match was played at Tony Bezzina Stadium in Paola.