Malta U17 1–4 Latvia U17: Result & Stats

Malta U17

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Latvia U17

10/30/2024

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 1MFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Malta U1729%

×Draw21%

Latvia U1749%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malta U17Expected goals in this matchLatvia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

2.04

Malta U17

1.53

Latvia U17

2.04

Latvia U17 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.57

2.50

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Malta U17

1.00

Latvia U17

1.57

allows per match

Malta U17

2.50

Latvia U17

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malta U17+0.00on par

Latvia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta U17 ↓

Latvia U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Malta U17 or draw

51%

Malta U17 or Latvia U17

79%

Draw or Latvia U17

71%

Winning margin

Malta U17 wins by 2+

13%

Latvia U17 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Malta U17 1+ goals

78%

Malta U17 2+ goals

45%

Malta U17 3+ goals

20%

Latvia U17 1+ goals

87%

Latvia U17 2+ goals

60%

Latvia U17 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Malta U17 (draw refunded)

37%

Latvia U17 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta U17 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Latvia U17 away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta U17 attack 1.00 + Latvia U17 defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.53

Latvia U17 attack 1.57 + Malta U17 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Malta U17 scores more

29%

level

21%

Latvia U17 scores more

49%

Latvia U17 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Latvia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff