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Varbergs BoIS FC vs Dalkurd FF — Superettan 2018

Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
5/11/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 7Påskbergsvallen (Varberg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC50%
×Draw25%
Dalkurd FF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.63
Dalkurd FF
1.07

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 49 away

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.58
Dalkurd FF
0.98

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.16
Dalkurd FF
1.67

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw
75%
Varbergs BoIS FC or Dalkurd FF
75%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
50%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
27%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
80%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
48%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
22%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
66%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
29%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
67%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.58 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
50%
level
25%
Dalkurd FF scores more
25%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Varbergs BoIS FC 2–0 Dalkurd FF

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Dalkurd FF 2-0 in Superettan on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Påskbergsvallen (Varberg).