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Syrianska FC vs Degerfors IF — Superettan 2018

Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
3/31/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 1Södertälje Fotbollsarena (Södertälje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Syrianska FC24%
×Draw24%
Degerfors IF52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syrianska FC
1.10
Degerfors IF
1.74

Degerfors IF creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Syrianska FC
1.07
Degerfors IF
1.48

allows per match

Syrianska FC
2.00
Degerfors IF
1.13

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw
48%
Syrianska FC or Degerfors IF
76%
Draw or Degerfors IF
76%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+
9%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals
67%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
30%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
10%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
82%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
52%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
31%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.13 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.07 + Degerfors IF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Degerfors IF attack 1.48 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Syrianska FC scores more
24%
level
24%
Degerfors IF scores more
52%

Degerfors IF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syrianska FC vs Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat Syrianska FC 4-1 in Superettan on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena (Södertälje).