Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Malole vs Simba — Ligue 1 2019

Malole
Malole
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Simba
Simba
12/22/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Malole42%
×Draw32%
Simba26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malole
1.08
Simba
0.78

Malole creates 38% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 89 away

creates per match

Malole
0.92
Simba
0.84

allows per match

Malole
0.72
Simba
1.25

finishing

Malole+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malole ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Malole or draw
74%
Malole or Simba
68%
Draw or Simba
58%

Winning margin

Malole wins by 2+
17%
Simba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Malole 1+ goals
66%
Malole 2+ goals
29%
Malole 3+ goals
10%
Simba 1+ goals
54%
Simba 2+ goals
18%
Simba 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Malole (draw refunded)
62%
Simba (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malole at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Simba away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malole attack 0.92 + Simba defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Simba attack 0.84 + Malole defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Malole scores more
42%
level
32%
Simba scores more
26%

Malole at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Malole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malole vs Simba

Malole beat Simba 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 22, 2025.