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Malole vs Sanga Balende — Ligue 1 2019

Malole
Malole
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sanga Balende
Sanga Balende
4/22/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Malole47%
×Draw31%
Sanga Balende22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malole
1.16
Sanga Balende
0.68

Malole creates 71% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 84 away

creates per match

Malole
0.92
Sanga Balende
0.63

allows per match

Malole
0.72
Sanga Balende
1.40

finishing

Malole+0.00on par
Sanga Balende+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malole ↓

Sanga Balende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Malole or draw
78%
Malole or Sanga Balende
69%
Draw or Sanga Balende
53%

Winning margin

Malole wins by 2+
21%
Sanga Balende wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Malole 1+ goals
69%
Malole 2+ goals
32%
Malole 3+ goals
11%
Sanga Balende 1+ goals
49%
Sanga Balende 2+ goals
15%
Sanga Balende 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Malole (draw refunded)
69%
Sanga Balende (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malole at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Sanga Balende away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malole attack 0.92 + Sanga Balende defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sanga Balende attack 0.63 + Malole defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Malole scores more
47%
level
31%
Sanga Balende scores more
22%

Malole at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Malole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malole vs Sanga Balende

Sanga Balende beat Malole 2-1 in Ligue 1 on April 22, 2026.