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Malole vs Blessing — Ligue 1 2019

Malole
Malole
AWD
3 – 0
Blessing
Blessing
4/15/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Malole41%
×Draw33%
Blessing27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malole
1.02
Blessing
0.77

Malole creates 32% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 62 away

creates per match

Malole
0.92
Blessing
0.81

allows per match

Malole
0.72
Blessing
1.11

finishing

Malole+0.00on par
Blessing+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malole ↓

Blessing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Malole or draw
73%
Malole or Blessing
67%
Draw or Blessing
59%

Winning margin

Malole wins by 2+
16%
Blessing wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Malole 1+ goals
64%
Malole 2+ goals
27%
Malole 3+ goals
8%
Blessing 1+ goals
54%
Blessing 2+ goals
18%
Blessing 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Malole (draw refunded)
60%
Blessing (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malole at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Blessing away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malole attack 0.92 + Blessing defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Blessing attack 0.81 + Malole defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malole scores more
41%
level
33%
Blessing scores more
27%

Malole at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malole face Blessing (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 returns with Malole hosting Blessing. Match starts April 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.