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Malole vs AS New Soger — Ligue 1 2019

Malole
Malole
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS New Soger
AS New Soger
12/7/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malole53%
×Draw32%
AS New Soger16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malole
1.16
AS New Soger
0.49

Malole creates 137% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

creates per match

Malole
0.92
AS New Soger
0.27

allows per match

Malole
0.72
AS New Soger
1.40

finishing

Malole+0.00on par
AS New Soger+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malole ↓

AS New Soger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Malole or draw
84%
Malole or AS New Soger
68%
Draw or AS New Soger
47%

Winning margin

Malole wins by 2+
23%
AS New Soger wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Malole 1+ goals
69%
Malole 2+ goals
32%
Malole 3+ goals
11%
AS New Soger 1+ goals
39%
AS New Soger 2+ goals
9%
AS New Soger 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Malole (draw refunded)
77%
AS New Soger (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malole at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

AS New Soger away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malole attack 0.92 + AS New Soger defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

AS New Soger attack 0.27 + Malole defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Malole scores more
53%
level
32%
AS New Soger scores more
16%

Malole at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Malole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malole 2 – 0 AS New Soger

Malole beat AS New Soger 2-0 in Ligue 1 on December 7, 2025.