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Malmö FF W vs Sundsvall W — Elitettan 2021

Malmö FF W
Malmö FF W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sundsvall W
Sundsvall W
5/18/2024ElitettanElitettan · Round 7Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Malmö FF W63%
×Draw19%
Sundsvall W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmö FF W
2.42
Sundsvall W
1.23

Malmö FF W creates 97% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

creates per match

Malmö FF W
2.77
Sundsvall W
1.00

allows per match

Malmö FF W
1.46
Sundsvall W
2.06

finishing

Malmö FF W+0.00on par
Sundsvall W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmö FF W ↓

Sundsvall W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Malmö FF W or draw
82%
Malmö FF W or Sundsvall W
81%
Draw or Sundsvall W
37%

Winning margin

Malmö FF W wins by 2+
41%
Sundsvall W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Malmö FF W 1+ goals
91%
Malmö FF W 2+ goals
69%
Malmö FF W 3+ goals
43%
Sundsvall W 1+ goals
71%
Sundsvall W 2+ goals
35%
Sundsvall W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Malmö FF W (draw refunded)
78%
Sundsvall W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmö FF W at home — creates 2.77, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Sundsvall W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmö FF W attack 2.77 + Sundsvall W defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.42

Sundsvall W attack 1.00 + Malmö FF W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Malmö FF W scores more
63%
level
19%
Sundsvall W scores more
18%

Malmö FF W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Malmö FF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Malmö FF W 2–1 Sundsvall W

Malmö FF W beat Sundsvall W 2-1 in Elitettan on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmö.