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Malmö FF W vs Hammarby W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Malmö FF W
Malmö FF W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hammarby W
Hammarby W
I. D'Aquila 88'
E. Wangerheim 58'
4/26/2025DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 5Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Malmö FF W39%
×Draw25%
Hammarby W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmö FF W
1.48
Hammarby W
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

creates per match

Malmö FF W
2.00
Hammarby W
2.09

allows per match

Malmö FF W
0.78
Hammarby W
0.96

finishing

Malmö FF W+0.00on par
Hammarby W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmö FF W ↓

Hammarby W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Malmö FF W or draw
63%
Malmö FF W or Hammarby W
75%
Draw or Hammarby W
61%

Winning margin

Malmö FF W wins by 2+
18%
Hammarby W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Malmö FF W 1+ goals
77%
Malmö FF W 2+ goals
43%
Malmö FF W 3+ goals
19%
Hammarby W 1+ goals
76%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
42%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Malmö FF W (draw refunded)
51%
Hammarby W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmö FF W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmö FF W attack 2.00 + Hammarby W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hammarby W attack 2.09 + Malmö FF W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Malmö FF W scores more
39%
level
25%
Hammarby W scores more
37%

Malmö FF W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Malmö FF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. D'AquilaMalmö FF WMalmö FF W · M
7.7

Match Events

56'
Asato Miyagawa
58'
E. Wangerheim↳ V. Hasund
59'
A. Josendal← C. Tandberg
59'
S. Lennartsson← V. Hasund
62'
Stina Lennartsson
74'
B. Persson← S. Fornes
78'
Agnes Mårtensson
80'
N. Nadim←
83'
A. Plantin← N. Hoff-Persson
88'
I. D'Aquila↳ N. Lilja

Possession

48%Malmö

Shots

14Malmö

Pass accuracy

50%Malmö

Statistics

MalmöHammarby
Overview
48%Possession52%
14Total Shots11
1.66Expected Goals (xG)1.48
3Corners12
7Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots11
3On Target1
2Off Target7
8Blocked3
10Inside Box7
4Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
454Total Passes448
373Accurate Passes363
82%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Damallsvenskan: Malmö FF W 1–1 Hammarby W

Malmö FF W and Hammarby W drew 1-1 in Damallsvenskan on April 26, 2025.

Goals: E. Wangerheim (58'), I. D'Aquila (88').

Hammarby W controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion.