Malmö FF W 3–1 Eskilstuna United W: Result & Stats

Malmö FF W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Eskilstuna United W

5/4/2024

Elitettan · Round 5Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Malmö FF W52%

×Draw20%

Eskilstuna United W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmö FF WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.64

Malmö FF W

2.27

Eskilstuna United W

1.64

Malmö FF W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

2.77

creates per match

1.82

1.46

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Malmö FF W

2.77

Eskilstuna United W

1.82

allows per match

Malmö FF W

1.46

Eskilstuna United W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmö FF W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmö FF W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Malmö FF W or draw

72%

Malmö FF W or Eskilstuna United W

80%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

48%

Winning margin

Malmö FF W wins by 2+

31%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Malmö FF W 1+ goals

90%

Malmö FF W 2+ goals

66%

Malmö FF W 3+ goals

39%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

81%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

49%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Malmö FF W (draw refunded)

65%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmö FF W at home — creates 2.77, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmö FF W attack 2.77 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.27

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.82 + Malmö FF W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Malmö FF W scores more

52%

level

20%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

28%

Malmö FF W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Malmö FF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff