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Malmö FF W vs Bollstanäs W — Elitettan 2021

Malmö FF W
Malmö FF W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Bollstanäs W
Bollstanäs W
11/2/2024ElitettanElitettan · Round 25Malmö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Malmö FF W62%
×Draw18%
Bollstanäs W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmö FF W
2.49
Bollstanäs W
1.33

Malmö FF W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

creates per match

Malmö FF W
2.77
Bollstanäs W
1.21

allows per match

Malmö FF W
1.46
Bollstanäs W
2.21

finishing

Malmö FF W+0.00on par
Bollstanäs W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmö FF W ↓

Bollstanäs W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Malmö FF W or draw
81%
Malmö FF W or Bollstanäs W
82%
Draw or Bollstanäs W
38%

Winning margin

Malmö FF W wins by 2+
41%
Bollstanäs W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Malmö FF W 1+ goals
92%
Malmö FF W 2+ goals
71%
Malmö FF W 3+ goals
45%
Bollstanäs W 1+ goals
74%
Bollstanäs W 2+ goals
38%
Bollstanäs W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Malmö FF W (draw refunded)
76%
Bollstanäs W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmö FF W at home — creates 2.77, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Bollstanäs W away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.21 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmö FF W attack 2.77 + Bollstanäs W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.49

Bollstanäs W attack 1.21 + Malmö FF W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Malmö FF W scores more
62%
level
18%
Bollstanäs W scores more
19%

Malmö FF W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Malmö FF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Malmö FF W 2–3 Bollstanäs W

Bollstanäs W beat Malmö FF W 3-2 in Elitettan on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Malmö Stadion in Malmö.