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Malmo FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Allsvenskan 2026

Malmo FF
Malmo FF
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
V. Birmančević 87'
A. Christiansen 64'
J. Berget 45+6' (pen)
7/9/2022AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 13Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Malmo FF62%
×Draw19%
Varbergs BoIS FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
2.27
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.14

Malmo FF creates 99% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
2.04
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.21

allows per match

Malmo FF
1.06
Varbergs BoIS FC
2.49

finishing

Malmo FF+0.18scores more
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.46scores more

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
82%
Malmo FF or Varbergs BoIS FC
81%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
38%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
40%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
90%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
66%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
39%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
68%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
32%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
78%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.49 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 2.04 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.27

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.21 + Malmo FF defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Malmo FF scores more
62%
level
19%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
18%

Malmo FF at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
J. BergetMalmo FFMalmo FF · M
8.5

Match Events

34'
A. Christiansen← E. Rakip
45+6'
J. BergetPenalty
60'
Oliver Stanisic
64'
A. Christiansen↳ J. Berget
65'
I. Lushaku← D. Kunst
65'
A. Johansson← O. Alfonsi
65'
Ó. Sverrisson← Eliton Júnior
65'
J. Sundström← A. Liljenbäck
70'
Veljko Birmančević
71'
P. Sejdiu← J. Berget
71'
O. Toivonen← I. Kiese Thelin
72'
A. Winbo← G. Mensah
78'
Ismet Lushaku
81'
Jon Birkfeldt
86'
E. Larsson← F. Beijmo
87'
V. Birmančević↳ E. Larsson

Possession

67%Malmo

Shots

27Malmo

Pass accuracy

55%Malmo

Statistics

MalmoVarbergs
Overview
67%Possession33%
27Total Shots5
10Corners1
13Fouls17
Shots
27Total Shots5
7On Target1
12Off Target3
8Blocked1
17Inside Box2
10Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
604Total Passes293
518Accurate Passes206
86%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls17
1Yellow Cards3
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Malmo FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC

Malmo FF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 3-0 in Allsvenskan on July 9, 2022.

Goals: J. Berget (45+6' pen), A. Christiansen (64'), V. Birmančević (87').

Malmo FF controlled possession (67%) and registered 27 shots to 5.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmö.