Malmo FF 3–0 Trelleborg: Result & Stats

Malmo FF

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Trelleborg

8/18/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 18Malmö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malmo FF68%

×Draw19%

Trelleborg13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.80

Malmo FF

2.12

Trelleborg

0.80

Malmo FF creates 165% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 15 away

2.17

creates per match

0.80

0.79

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Malmo FF

2.17

Trelleborg

0.80

allows per match

Malmo FF

0.79

Trelleborg

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Trelleborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

87%

Malmo FF or Trelleborg

81%

Draw or Trelleborg

32%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

43%

Trelleborg wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

88%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

62%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

35%

Trelleborg 1+ goals

55%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

19%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

84%

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.79 · 126 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 2.17 + Trelleborg defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.12

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + Malmo FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Malmo FF scores more

68%

level

19%

Trelleborg scores more

13%

Malmo FF at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff