Malmo FF 5–1 Onsala: Result & Stats | Svenska Cupen

Malmo FF

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Onsala

10/13/2021

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundEleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Malmo FF80%

×Draw12%

Onsala8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchOnsala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.32

1.02

Malmo FF

3.32

Onsala

1.02

Malmo FF creates 225% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 5 away

3.24

creates per match

1.40

0.65

allows per match

3.40

creates per match

Malmo FF

3.24

Onsala

1.40

allows per match

Malmo FF

0.65

Onsala

3.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Onsala+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Onsala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

92%

Malmo FF or Onsala

88%

Draw or Onsala

20%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

62%

Onsala wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

96%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

84%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

62%

Onsala 1+ goals

64%

Onsala 2+ goals

27%

Onsala 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

91%

Onsala (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 3.24, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Onsala away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 3.24 + Onsala defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.32

Onsala attack 1.40 + Malmo FF defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Malmo FF scores more

80%

level

12%

Onsala scores more

8%

Malmo FF at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff