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Malmo FF vs ODD Ballklubb — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Malmo FF
Malmo FF
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
2/10/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Malmo FF46%
×Draw24%
ODD Ballklubb29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
1.64
ODD Ballklubb
1.26

Malmo FF creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.44

allows per match

Malmo FF
1.08
ODD Ballklubb
2.11

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
71%
Malmo FF or ODD Ballklubb
76%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
54%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
24%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
81%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
49%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
23%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
72%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
36%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
61%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 1.17 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.64

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.44 + Malmo FF defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Malmo FF scores more
46%
level
24%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
29%

Malmo FF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Malmo
ODD
Endika Gavina
Manager: Endika Gavina
Per Frandsen
Manager: Per Frandsen

Match Recap: Malmo FF vs ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb beat Malmo FF 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 10, 2026.