Malmo FF 3–1 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

Malmo FF

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

IFK Varnamo

7/31/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 17Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Malmo FF57%

×Draw22%

IFK Varnamo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.09

Malmo FF

1.94

IFK Varnamo

1.09

Malmo FF creates 78% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

2.13

creates per match

1.22

0.97

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Malmo FF

2.13

IFK Varnamo

1.22

allows per match

Malmo FF

0.97

IFK Varnamo

1.76

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

Malmo FF+0.14scores more

IFK Varnamo+0.49scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

79%

Malmo FF or IFK Varnamo

78%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

43%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

33%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

86%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

58%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

30%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

66%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

30%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

73%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.97 · 11 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.76 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 2.13 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.94

IFK Varnamo attack 1.22 + Malmo FF defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Malmo FF scores more

57%

level

22%

IFK Varnamo scores more

21%

Malmo FF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff