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Malmo FF vs Halmstad — Allsvenskan 2018

Malmo FF
Malmo FF
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Halmstad
Halmstad
5/18/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 10Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Malmo FF54%
×Draw22%
Halmstad24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
1.93
Halmstad
1.20

Malmo FF creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
2.16
Halmstad
1.27

allows per match

Malmo FF
1.12
Halmstad
1.69

finishing

Malmo FF+0.01on par
Halmstad-0.56scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Halmstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
76%
Malmo FF or Halmstad
78%
Draw or Halmstad
46%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
31%
Halmstad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
85%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
57%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
30%
Halmstad 1+ goals
70%
Halmstad 2+ goals
34%
Halmstad 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
70%
Halmstad (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.69 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 2.16 + Halmstad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.93

Halmstad attack 1.27 + Malmo FF defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Malmo FF scores more
54%
level
22%
Halmstad scores more
24%

Malmo FF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malmo FF vs Halmstad

Malmo FF beat Halmstad 3-0 in Allsvenskan on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmo.