Malmo FF 5–1 Halmstad: Result & Stats | Allsvenskan

Malmo FF

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Halmstad

H. Bolin 90+3', 85'

E. Botheim 74'

I. Kiese Thelin 37'

A. Christiansen 22'

B. Ingason 29'

7/7/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 13Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Malmo FF57%

×Draw22%

Halmstad21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchHalmstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.04

Malmo FF

1.89

Halmstad

1.04

Malmo FF creates 82% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

2.04

creates per match

1.02

1.06

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Malmo FF

2.04

Halmstad

1.02

allows per match

Malmo FF

1.06

Halmstad

1.74

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Malmo FF+0.18scores more

Halmstad-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Halmstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

79%

Malmo FF or Halmstad

78%

Draw or Halmstad

43%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

33%

Halmstad wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

85%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

56%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

29%

Halmstad 1+ goals

65%

Halmstad 2+ goals

28%

Halmstad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

74%

Halmstad (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.74 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 2.04 + Halmstad defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.89

Halmstad attack 1.02 + Malmo FF defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Malmo FF scores more

57%

level

22%

Halmstad scores more

21%

Malmo FF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

H. Bolin

Malmo FF · M

9.3

Match Events

20'

B. Turgott← N. Mohammed

22'

A. Christiansen

29'

B. Ingason

37'

I. Kiese Thelin↳ S. Nanasi

68'

Gabriel Wallentin

72'

T. Ali← A. Christiansen

72'

N. Moisander← M. Olsson

72'

R. Wiedesheim-Paul← B. Ingason

72'

T. Boakye← G. Wallentin

74'

E. Botheim↳ I. Kiese Thelin

80'

Joseph Baffo

82'

J. Allansson← M. Olsson

83'

O. Rosengren← O. Berg

83'

H. Bolin← E. Botheim

83'

A. Johansson← J. Svedberg

85'

H. Bolin

86'

S. Jørgensen← S. Nanasi

90+3'

H. Bolin↳ N. Moisander

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalmoHalmstad

Overview

78%Possession22%

15Total Shots10

1Corners6

13Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots10

7On Target1

4Off Target4

4Blocked5

11Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

78%Possession22%

747Total Passes206

668Accurate Passes125

89%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls6

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3