Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Malmo FF vs Gais — Svenska Cupen 2019

Malmo FF
Malmo FF
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Gais
Gais
2/20/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Malmö IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Malmo FF68%
×Draw18%
Gais14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
2.46
Gais
1.04

Malmo FF creates 137% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
3.24
Gais
1.44

allows per match

Malmo FF
0.65
Gais
1.67

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
86%
Malmo FF or Gais
82%
Draw or Gais
32%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
46%
Gais wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
91%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
70%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
44%
Gais 1+ goals
65%
Gais 2+ goals
28%
Gais 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
83%
Gais (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 3.24, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Gais away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 3.24 + Gais defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Gais attack 1.44 + Malmo FF defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Malmo FF scores more
68%
level
18%
Gais scores more
14%

Malmo FF at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malmo FF 5 – 1 Gais

Malmo FF beat Gais 5-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Malmö IP in Malmö.