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Gais vs Malmo FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Gais
Gais
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
9/18/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 24Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Gais37%
×Draw25%
Malmo FF38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.43
Malmo FF
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gais
1.66
Malmo FF
1.81

allows per match

Gais
1.07
Malmo FF
1.20

finishing

Gais-0.26scores less
Malmo FF-0.10scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gais or draw
62%
Gais or Malmo FF
75%
Draw or Malmo FF
63%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
17%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
76%
Gais 2+ goals
42%
Gais 3+ goals
17%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
76%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
42%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
50%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.07 · 10 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.66 + Malmo FF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.43

Malmo FF attack 1.81 + Gais defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gais scores more
37%
level
25%
Malmo FF scores more
38%

Malmo FF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gais 0 – 0 Malmo FF

Gais and Malmo FF drew 0-0 in Allsvenskan on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.