Malmo FF 2–0 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Malmo FF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Beşiktaş

M. Rosenberg 76' (pen)

C. Erkin 53' (OG)

10/4/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 2Malmo New Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Malmo FF63%

×Draw19%

Beşiktaş17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.08

Malmo FF

2.25

Beşiktaş

1.08

Malmo FF creates 108% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

1.92

creates per match

1.00

1.16

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Malmo FF

1.92

Beşiktaş

1.00

allows per match

Malmo FF

1.16

Beşiktaş

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

83%

Malmo FF or Beşiktaş

81%

Draw or Beşiktaş

37%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

41%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

89%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

65%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

39%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

66%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

29%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

79%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 1.92 + Beşiktaş defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.25

Beşiktaş attack 1.00 + Malmo FF defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Malmo FF scores more

63%

level

19%

Beşiktaş scores more

17%

Malmo FF at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Dahlin

Malmo FF · G

7.6

Match Events

45'

Fouad Bachirou

53'

C. ErkinOwn goal

58'

59'

66'

70'

70'

Ricardo Quaresma← A. Ljajić

72'

B. Innocent← A. Christiansen

76'

Caner Erkin

76'

M. RosenbergPenalty

82'

O. Özyakup← G. Gönül

85'

M. Antonsson← A. Traustason

90+2'

F. Brorsson← L. Nielsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalmoBeşiktaş

Overview

44%Possession56%

5Total Shots8

1Corners3

17Fouls16

Shots

5Total Shots8

2On Target4

2Off Target2

1Blocked2

3Inside Box6

2Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

412Total Passes509

310Accurate Passes423

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides11